How to Forecast The Future

Matt Klein's recipe for


CuriosityRealismEmpathyAversion to HypeChecked Bias


First, consider how your lived experiences may influence how you perceive the world. Keep this in mind. Second, curate your media diet around the subject you want to forecast. What are your inputs? Are they balanced, representative, and fringy? Collect signals of change (headlines, market data, social posts, interviews, observations, etc.). The more provocative these signals, the better. Be careful: The more signals you have, the later you may be to the trend. Next, seek patterns. Identify the common themes amongst these signals. Consider the common denominator or thread which ties this change together. Tip: Root this explanation in human behavior. We now want to extrapolate. Take your explanation and answer: Then what? Then what? Then what? Keep going. Get creative as you consider knock-on effects. Optional: Create multiple paths (ex. what's the most likely scenario, darkest outcome, preferable future, etc.) Lastly, act. With these visions of tomorrow, how do you strategize today? Foresight isn't about prediction, but preparation. Remember: The future is not fixed. There are no complete answers here. Balance researching the future with making it. What do you want to see?